Intra-annual variations of the thermospheric density at 400 km altitude from 1996 to 2006

We investigate the intra-annual variations of globally averaged thermospheric density at 400 km altitude from 1996 to 2006 by using Artificial Neural Network Method (ANNM). The results indicate that thermospheric density is governed by solar activity, and the absolute error of our model is 13.67%, less than NRLMSISE-00 model. Fourier representation can catch the intra-annual variations more accurately than NRLMSISE-00 model and JB2008 model especially during 2002. We find that the Autumn maximum is slightly greater than Spring maximum during solar minimum, while the reverse is correct during solar maximum. There is a strong linear relation between solar activity and the amplitude of annual/semiannual variations, and the correlation coefficients are 0.9534 and 0.9424, respectively. Moreover, the amplitude ratio of the annual to semiannual variation is about 1.3 averaged, and changes in different years, but it has little relation with solar activity. Besides that, the amplitude of annual variation is larger than semiannual variation during 1996 and 2006 except 1998 and 2000. The relative error of NRLMSISE-00 model is 14.95%, decreasing to 12.49% after revising, and the correlation coefficients between this empirical model and its improved results and the observation are 0.8185 and 0.9210, respectively. Finally, we suggest the revised version of MSIS series of model should use the Fourier representation to express the intra-annual variations.     

Method for the prediction of the effective dose equivalent to the crew of the International Space Station

This paper describes a methodology for assessing the pre-mission exposure of space crew aboard the International Space Station (ISS) in terms of an effective dose equivalent. In this approach, the PHITS Monte Carlo code was used to assess the particle transport of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and trapped radiation for solar maximum and minimum conditions through an aluminum shield thickness. From these predicted spectra, and using fluence-to-dose conversion factors, a scaling ratio of the effective dose equivalent rate to the ICRU ambient dose equivalent rate at a 10 mm depth was determined. Only contributions from secondary neutrons, protons, and alpha particles were considered in this analysis.     

A comprehensive numerical model investigating the thermal-dynamic performance of scientific balloon

The increase of balloon applications makes it necessary for a comprehensive understanding of the thermal and dynamic performance of scientific balloons. This paper proposed a novel numerical model to investigate the thermal and dynamic characteristics of scientific balloon in both ascending and floating conditions. The novel model consists of a dynamic model and thermal model, the dynamic model was solved numerically by a computer program developed with Matlab/Simulink to calculate the velocity and trajectory, the thermal model was solved by the Fluent program to find out the balloon film temperature distribution and inner Helium gas velocity and temperature field. These models were verified by comparing the numerical results with experimental data. Then the thermal and dynamic behavior of a scientific balloon in a real environment were simulated and discussed in details.     

一种基于光固化快速成型的飞机静弹性风洞试验模型设计方法

高速风洞静弹性模型设计和制造是静弹性风洞试验的一个关键。为解决模型设计周期长、制造费用高等问题,提出了一种基于立体光固化快速成型面向高速风洞大展弦比机翼静弹性模型研制方法。基于机翼刚度分布相似参数,采用机翼钢梁骨架和树脂蒙皮组合结构,通过优化结构尺寸完成静弹性模型结构设计;使用机械加工和快速成型技术完成模型制造,并通过地面刚度试验对加工模型进行了刚度分布验证。风洞试验结果表明：基于立体光固化成型技术设计和制造的静弹性风洞试验模型工程实用、可行,与传统静弹性模型研制过程相比,具有研制周期短、成本低而且不存在因填充物带来附加刚度的显著优势。     

多退化变量下基于Copula函数的陀螺仪剩余寿命预测方法

针对惯性导航系统中陀螺仪多退化变量条件下的剩余寿命（RUL）预测问题,提出了一种基于Copula函数的多退化变量剩余寿命预测方法。首先,针对退化变量间不同的退化轨迹,采用不同的方法进行退化建模,并对于陀螺漂移系数样本标准差数据波动性随时间递增的特性,提出了一种方差时变的正态随机过程退化建模方法,得到了陀螺仪剩余寿命的边缘分布函数。然后,通过Copula函数来描述退化变量之间的相关性,将得到的剩余寿命的边缘分布进行融合,得到了陀螺仪剩余寿命的联合分布函数。最后,通过陀螺仪实例分析验证了方法的适用性和可行性。     

基于贝叶斯模型平均的航空发动机可靠性分析

针对不同失效模式的特点,利用航空发动机状态监测信息,分别采用Gamma过程、Wiener过程和Weibull分布建立可靠性分析模型.采用贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法,分析不同失效模式对可靠性影响,对航空发动机可靠性进行集成分析.通过算例跟踪某在翼航空发动机可靠性水平,基于贝叶斯模型平均的航空发动机可靠性模型的计算误差率低于单一可靠性分析模型,计算结果误差率低于1%.说明多模型集成可靠性技术在复杂系统运行可靠性分析中的有效性和准确性.      

2.5维机织复合材料疲劳寿命预测方法

针对疲劳载荷作用下的2.5维机织复合材料,建立了疲劳寿命预测方法.该方法主要包括单胞模型、疲劳失效判定准则和材料性能退化方法3部分.选取单胞模型为研究对象,利用三维有限元技术进行应力分析;引入改进的三维Hashin疲劳失效准则和Mises准则作为纤维束和树脂基体的疲劳失效判据;采用刚度性能突降准则描述疲劳失效后的材料性能,采用考虑纤维体积分数影响的剩余刚度和剩余强度退化模型描述失效前材料的性能.通过疲劳寿命预测值与试验值的对比,验证了疲劳寿命预测方法的有效性.研究表明:经向拉-拉疲劳寿命随经纱纤维体积分数增大而增加,纬向拉-拉疲劳寿命受纬纱纤维体积分数影响较小.      

变循环发动机建模方法研究及验证

研究了变循环发动机(VCE)关键部件建模技术.采用叶尖叶根分段建模技术建立了两段风扇的数学模型,使之更适用于VCE.基于流场分析,建立了活门开度、外涵道进口总压、动压与外涵道总压恢复系数之间的智能映射,完善了外涵道模型.建立了VCE部件共同工作方程,获得了VCE部件级数学模型.基于欧洲空间与推进系统仿真数据库进行设计点计算,并开展了仿真验证.仿真结果表明:建立的数学模型表现出的工作性能与实际发动机实验结果一致,在低马赫数下双外涵道模式推力更大、耗油率更低;相反在高马赫数下单外涵道模式推力及耗油率优于双外涵模式,验证了所采用建模方法的有效性.      

改进的Qiu滑移因子模型用于离心压气机叶轮的参数研究

为适用于微型离心压气机叶轮的通流设计,对Qiu滑移因子模型加入了3个经验参数.首先对经验参数的求解方法及参数对于设计精度的影响进行了分析研究,发现其中经验参数c_r对于设计精度影响较大.其次在通流设计中应用改进的Qiu滑移因子模型辅助生成叶片,用计算流体动力学(CFD)研究了c_r所影响的模型滑移因子,与数值流场的出口平均滑移因子对比,得到了多种叶轮总体参数下c_r的最佳取值.发现虽然微型、大型离心压气机叶轮总体参数变化范围很大,但c_r的取值均以0.7左右为其最佳值.